Do Hindu Gods Discriminate Against Those Who Arrive Late to Heaven?

And of course, like clockwork, the daily COVID-19 cases in Bhaktapur spiked on April 18.

Here’s a look at the COVID-19 situation in Bhaktapur until the first day of Biska Jatra, April 10. Sure, number of daily cases were rising but at a very low rate, as indicated in the chart by the upward sloping trend of the 7-day average data (red trendline).

What happened seven days later, on the 18th of April? The number of cases shot up and they have been climbing steeply ever since.

Why did the cases shoot up starting on the 7th day of the first day of Biska Jatra? Seven days is approximately the average incubation period for the coronavirus in the human body. The total incubation period is understood to be between two and fourteen days. I have ascribed the upward trend in cases to Biska Jatra because, as far as I know, there wasn’t any such event which brought together so many people in one place for so many days.

And what of the deaths in the country? They have begun rising too. From the middle of March to until April 11, the 3-day average deaths had been rising only imperceptibly. It’s begun rising steeply since. Compare the red trend lines in the chart below.

Of course, COVID-19 Jatra has not ended in Bhaktapur (or in any other place for that matter). If interested in how it continues to unfold, come back and have a look at the live chart below.

The following graph charts the changes in total cases. The concave shape of the curve starting from when the daily cases started trending up sharply indicates that we are on the exponential growth phase.

How many other festivals were held around the country without regard for their consequences, as if there were limited places in Heaven and getting there early was important? Being Spring, likely many — not to forget all the weddings. “Tis the season” you know! 😉 😉 And add to them the political rallies!

How many COVID-19 Jatras must have followed other religious Jatras around the country? Coronavirus does NOT discriminate so likely many too! No Hindu festivals are quiet and low key affairs. They require and attract crowds and are celebrated with great fanfare. Ok, NOT every one of them is as big as Biska Jatra in Bhaktapur is but they all involve crowds.

No wonder, on April 22, Nepal had the highest Reproduction Rate in the WORLD (see chart below)! (A Reproduction Rate of 2.19 means that every infection person re-infects 2 others on average. Or, every 10 infected individuals pass on their infections to 22 others on average.)

So, Nepal has the highest rate of growth of COVID-19 cases in the world. In other words, coronavirus is spreading faster among its population than in any other 200 or so countries!

Heck, the MoHP even revised their projection on April 24: 800K ADDTIONAL cases in “worst case scenario” by mid-July. Their last projection — issued less than two weeks prior — had been for 600K TOTAL cases by mid-July!

How many will learn lessons from Bhaktapur and similar events? Sadly, not by all, or not by even sufficiently large percentage of the population to make a difference is my feeling. Sadly.

We are a highly religious population for one. The level of education of the population is extremely low for another. We don’t even have 100% literacy! Less than 10% have twelve or more years of education. The quality of that low level of education is abysmally poor for still another one — science literacy is minimal, for example. Those in positions of authority are highly incompetent and have always done and continue to do a pathetic job of educating the population about anything, including the pandemic, is still another.

What do you think?

References

Added after publication of the blog post.

AayoMail (April 30, 2021). कोरोनालाई गिज्याउँदै हायात होटलमा ३ सयभन्दा बढी भारतीयको बिहेभोज. “Even while the government has issued prohibitory directives against gatherings of people numbering more than 15, at Hyat Hotel in Kathmandu, a wedding with over 300 Indian guests have been taking place for the last three days.” [Added April 20, 2021.]

Nagarik (April 30, 2021). निषेधाज्ञाबीच साँखुमा जात्रा (फोटाेफिचर). Another photo feature of another festival in the valley today! [Added April 30, 2021.]

HImalayan TV (May 5, 2021). कोरोना संक्रमित र सर्वसाधारणको यक्ष प्रश्न स्वास्थ्यमन्त्री त्रिपाठीको जवाफ. YouTube video of an interview with the Minister of Health and Population. At the 11th minute mark he shared that 300K Nepalis attended Khumbh Mela in India, a religious gathering that The Wire characterized as a superspreader and potentially the biggest one in the world. Also according to the Minister 75% of the attendees are estimated to be infected with the virus! That’s 225K!! And between March and May 5, the total number of cases detected through PCR tests number only 85K! [Added May 6, 2021.]

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